Headlines screamed “meltdown.” Data whispered “hold my beer.”
As President Trump begins his second term, policy shifts and geopolitical friction once again dominate headlines. But underneath the noise lies a more nuanced story-one of market resilience, strategic positioning, and long-term realignment. This report breaks down the first 100 days of Trump II and their broader implications across North America, focusing on trade, labor, diplomacy, Canada’s political recalibration, and the resurgence of commodities.
1. Tariff Reintroduction: A Measured Jolt
Within hours of returning to office, Trump reactivated his signature economic lever:
- 10% tariff on all imports
- 30% tariff specifically targeting Chinese goods
Market Reality Check:
Cue commentators and “experts” forecasting economic chaos, the data told a more restrained story:
- CPI: Inflation fell to a four-year low despite the new tariffs
- Dollar Index: Held steady near two-year highs-global investors signaled confidence
- Equities: The S&P 500 barely flinched, brushing aside tariff rhetoric like a seasoned executive dodging small talk
Estimated Annual Tariff Revenues:
- General Imports (~$3 trillion): 10% → $300 billion
- Chinese Imports (~$400 billion): 30% → $120 billion
Perspective: Combined, that’s more than many Fortune 100 companies generate in annual profits-trade policy just got promoted to major-league revenue tool.
2. Labor and Investment: Business Unusual
Even the boldest trade moves couldn’t stall America’s economic engine:
- Unemployment: Anchored at 3.6%, flirting with 50-year lows
- Job Creation: Averaging 215,000 new jobs per month-if employment were a streaming series, it’d be topping the charts
- Private Fixed Investment: Up 2.1% year-to-date, with manufacturing and infrastructure capex accelerating
Key Insight:
The economic groundwork laid by 2017 tax reforms and deregulation continues to pay off. Add in trade friction that businesses have now priced in, and you get a surprisingly upbeat corporate outlook.
3. Trade & Diplomacy: The Long Game in Motion
Beyond tariffs, Trump’s team is leaning into longer-term trade realignment:
- USMCA 2.0 Adjustments: Tweaks to rules of origin offer Detroit some breathing room and supply chain flexibility
- Bilateral Outreach: Early-stage negotiations with India and Brazil aim to diversify U.S. exports beyond a China-centric dance
- China Strategy: Tariffs remain, but multinationals are adapting-think pivot, not pullout
Strategic Take:
Markets have learned this choreography. That’s why the response was a quiet nod, not a panicked selloff.
4. Canada’s Crossroads: Alberta’s Momentum, Carney’s Mandate
North of the border, the political and economic climate is shifting:
- Alberta’s Bold Moves:
- Referendum talk returns
- Carbon tax put on ice
- Alberta Sovereignty Act advances from campaign slogan to legislative reality
Royalty Reboot – A Thought Experiment:
Alberta produces ~3 million barrels/day. At $80/barrel and an 85% royalty rate (à la Saudi Arabia), annual revenues could reach $74 billion-almost 5x current royalty income.
Enter Mark Carney:
Now positioned as Canada’s economic envoy, Carney’s task list is heavy:
- Broker Cross-Border Energy Deals: Streamline approvals and turn interest into infrastructure
- Clarify Carbon Policy: Harmonize ESG objectives with provincial autonomy and investor confidence
- Rebuild Trade Credibility: Ensure Canada remains a stable partner amid North American realignment
First Signals:
Carney’s opening meeting with Trump traded campaign jabs for pragmatic dialogue. The question now: Can he turn chemistry into concrete deals?
5. Commodities: Fueling the Rebuild
The continent’s appetite for raw materials is surging-essential for both old and new industries.
Energy
- Natural Gas: Powering everything from LNG terminals to AI-driven data centers-midstream assets are being overhauled
- Oil Sands: Canadian heavy crude is back in play, with investors watching closely for pipeline expansions and export unlocks
Metals & Minerals
- The Electrification Suite: Lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper-the essential building blocks of the EV era
- Gold & Silver: Reliable hedges in times of political uncertainty
- Policy Boosts: Alberta and Saskatchewan are positioning as mining-friendly jurisdictions, while the U.S. Defense Production Act is fast-tracking strategic mineral projects
Investor Strategy:
Prioritize assets with offtake agreements, double down on domestic processing, and keep precious metals as a hedge against volatility.
6. Technology: A Rebound Amidst Strategic Adjustments
The 90-day tariff reduction between the U.S. and China has produced a surge in tech stocks, however core pressures remain:
1. Supply Chain Disruptions
Tariffs on Chinese imports are causing production shifts for U.S.-bound devices to countries like India and Vietnam.
2. AI Infrastructure Investments
Tariffs are prompting tech companies to pare hiring and marketing budgets, even as AI capital expenditures continue to anticipate demand growth and remain strong in the face of inflated construction costs and a potential overbuilt scenario.
Investor Takeaway: Watch for agentic AI offerings that automate workflows by making decisions and executing tasks with minimal human intervention while removing administrative cost and operational risk or optimizing revenue acquisition and margin performance.
7. The Next Investor Focus: Beyond the Headlines
As tariff drama settles, investors are now eyeing three interconnected trends:
1. Housing Inventory Shift
After a long stretch of low supply, homes are piling up in metros from Phoenix to Calgary. Price gains have cooled-what was a sprint is now a cautious jog.
Investor Takeaway: Watch for markets where fundamentals and prices have begun to decouple-those will offer entry points.
2. Household Leverage Tightens
The student loan moratorium has ended, and mortgage rates are pinching budgets. Rising delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans could be the canaries in the coal mine.
3. Immigration Slowdown
Policy changes have curbed net immigration across North America, especially among younger, housing-demand-driving cohorts.
Implication: Less natural demand for rentals and entry-level homes. Rents and starter-home prices may face prolonged headwinds.
Final Word: Reset or Realignment?
Whether these trends spark widespread softness or just sector-specific adjustments remains to be seen. But the market’s gaze is clearly shifting-from trade rhetoric to real-world fundamentals.
The next leg of the North American reset will be written not by headlines, but by household balance sheets, supply chains, and demographic math.
About Moneta
Moneta is a boutique investment banking firm that specializes in advising growth stage companies through transformational changes including major transactions such as mergers and acquisitions, private placements, public offerings, obtaining debt, structure optimization, and other capital markets and divestiture / liquidity events. Additionally, and on a selective basis, we support pre-cash-flow companies to fulfill their project finance needs.
We are proud to be a female-founded and led Canadian firm. Our head office is located in Vancouver, and we have presence in Calgary, Edmonton, and Toronto, as well as representation in Europe and the Middle East. Our partners bring decades of experience across a wide variety of sectors which enables us to deliver exceptional results for our clients in realizing their capital markets and strategic goals. Our partners are supported by a team of some of Canada’s most qualified associates, analysts, and admin personnel.